Final Thoughts
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Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
March 4, 2016
On Friday the Wall Street Journal wrote an article about the AK Steel price increase announcement and Steel Market Update was quoted in the article. The article was picked up by the Dow Jones and NASDAQ news feeds. Here is a copy of the article for those who may be interested.
I have been an optimist for a number of months. The reason being our surveys have been consistently showing improving (more optimistic) Sentiment within buyers and sellers of steel. Our surveys are also indicating an improving demand scenario and inventories seem to be getting back in line.
I am not the only one who thinks fears of recession are overblown. Here is a note from Keith Prather of Armada Corporate Intelligence (Chris Kuehl’s partner). This is what Keith had to say the other day, “I just don’t understand, and I’m a Little Angry. Let’s be clear, this is Keith, not Chris (he might disagree with me!). I needed to throw an editorial out here today because of headlines and commentary I’m hearing about a recession. Those of you who know me know that I’m not always an optimist – I’m more of a data-driven realist that can come across as a pessimist. I like to see the evidence in the data and make conclusions and predictions from that data. So, I get headlines today about the Services sector “collapse” in February and that it will show us as being in recession in the first quarter, etc. And this comes from prominent sources! It just isn’t true (picture me saying that with a whiny, tired, frustrated little voice).”
Dr. Chris Kuehl (one of our Steel Summit speakers from 2014 & 2015) provided his insights as well, “I do indeed agree wholeheartedly with his assessment of the economy and the assertion that we are not heading towards a recession anytime in the foreseeable future. Apparently we are in good company as most of the economists polled this week assert the economy is still growing albeit at a slow and frustrating pace. The latest job numbers confirm what many had believed earlier – the economy is still in steady growth mode – it is just that the pace of that growth is excruciatingly slow. Since the start of the year there has been great angst in the markets provoked by a few sectors that have been in real trouble. The oil sector has been in big trouble for over a year now and that pain doesn’t appear to be easing any time soon. The Chinese slowdown has caused a great deal of concern as well and these combined to scare the wits out of the investment community. The fact is that neither of these areas of concern have been quite as bad as painted.”
I got a note this evening from a friend who just landed in China. He told me prices in China have begun to move, “Q235 Billet in Tangshan hiked to 2,020 yuan/ton (311 dollars/ton) by the end of Sunday March 06, surging 240 yuan/ton (37 dollars/ton) during March 05-06 and having increased by approximately 500 yuan/ton (77 dollars/ton) since February 14, the Chinese return from Lunar New Year Holiday. There’s a strong bullish sentiment about more rises ahead.”
I will end my comments this evening by encouraging our readers to remain aware of what is going on around you and around the world. Prices may surprise to the upside before all is said and done…
Your business is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update.
John Packard, Publisher
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John Packard
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Sheet prices didn’t roar back after Labor Day. But steel market news sure came out of the gate strong (or maybe chaotically is the better way to put it). First, the nearly $15-billion proposed sale of U.S. Steel to Nippon Steel exploded into the news. And when I say exploded, I mean that all sides seem to be escalating things now.
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Welcome back from Labor Day, from Steel Summit, and from whatever fun you might have had over the long weekend. Personally, I enjoyed camping with friends and family near Starved Rock. No one starved, there were no major injuries, and we enjoyed the many splendors of Mystical Fire. (Speaking of which, does that have industrial uses? But I digress.)
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I want to say a huge ‘thank you’ from all of us at SMU to all of you (more than 1,500!) who attended Steel Summit this year. We appreciate you taking time out of busy schedules to join us – whether that was up on stage, submitting thoughtful questions, or catching up over a drink and bite to eat. Also, a bit shoutout to everyone at SMU and at CRU who made this event possible. It’s no understatement to say that we have a fantastic team.
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Day one and two of SMU's Steel Summit 2024 are officially in the books. We covered a lot of ground, and the agenda sure did deliver.
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The big show is just about here. SMU Steel Summit will be getting underway on Monday. Where does the networking begin? I’d say at the airport. So don’t forget your business cards. And it can't hurt to wear a company golf shirt.