SMU Data and Models
Steel Mill Lead Times Treading Water with Little to No Change
Written by John Packard
December 3, 2015
The following lead times are averages generated out of the flat rolled steel market analysis we conducted beginning on Monday of this week. Actual mill lead times will vary from mill to mill and we always recommend that buyers speak to their mill representatives in order to obtain the most up to date lead times for that mill.
Those responding to our inquiry regarding hot rolled lead times reported a 3 week average which is essentially unchanged over the past few months. Last year at the beginning of December HR lead times averaged 3.5 weeks.
Cold rolled lead times averaged at 4.78 weeks again, essentially unchanged from what we have been reporting for the past few months. In early December 2014 CR lead times averaged 5.68 weeks.
Galvanized lead times average just over 5 weeks (5.20) which is where we have seen them over the past few months. One year ago GI lead times were at 6.0 weeks.
Galvalume lead times were reported to be averaging just over 6.0 weeks (6.13) which is in line with the 6.20 weeks reported one year ago.
It is our opinion that lead times will be one of the early signs of change which may lead to a spark and move steel prices off the current levels.
To see an interactive history of our Steel Mill Lead Time data, visit our website here.
John Packard
Read more from John PackardLatest in SMU Data and Models
SMU Survey: Sheet lead times ease further, plate hits one-year high
Steel buyers responding to this week’s SMU market survey report a continued softening in sheet lead times. Meanwhile, plate lead times have moderately extended and are at a one-year high.
SMU Survey: Buyers report more price flexibility from mills
Nearly half of the steel buyers responding to this week’s SMU market survey say domestic mills are showing increased willingness to negotiate pricing on new spot orders. This marks a significant shift from the firmer stance mills held in prior weeks.
SMU Survey: Buyers’ Sentiment Indices fall
Current Sentiment Index dropped six points to +42 this week compared to two weeks earlier. It has fallen in every successive survey since reaching a 2025 high of +66 on Feb. 19.
March service center shipments and inventories report
Steel service center shipments and inventories report through March 2024.
Apparent steel supply contracts in February
The amount of finished steel that entered the US market in February receded from January’s peak, according to our analysis of Department of Commerce and American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) data.