SMU Data and Models
Domestic Mill Lead Times Remain Flat
Written by John Packard
November 19, 2015
Twice per month, Steel Market Update (SMU) conducts an analysis of the flat rolled steel market from the perspective of active buyers and sellers of sheet and coil products. We invite approximately 560 companies to participate through the use of a questionnaire that we have been using since 2008.
One of the areas probed is in regards to North American (specifically U.S. and Canadian) steel mill lead times. We do not attempt to discover the exact lead times for new prime orders at specific mills rather we are looking for any changes in the trend over time.
Those responding to our mid-November flat rolled steel questionnaire reported, as a group, domestic mill lead times as essentially unchanged over the past four weeks. When looking at lead times on a year over year basis we continue to see all products with shorter lead times this year compared to last.
The hot rolled average remains at just under 3 weeks (2.91 weeks, 2.82 weeks one month ago). Again, this is not the lead time for any specific mill but an average generated out of all of the respondents to this week’s market analysis questionnaire. Last year hot rolled lead times were at just under 4 weeks (3.81 weeks).
Cold rolled lead times weakened slightly from what we reported in the middle of October. The average CR lead time is now 4.75 weeks vs. the 5.00 weeks during the middle of October. One year ago CR lead times averaged 6.05 weeks.
Like HR and CR above, galvanized lead times are being reported at 5.11 weeks which is down slightly from two weeks ago (5.31 weeks) but in line with the 4.98 weeks reported during the middle of October. One year ago GI lead times averaged 6.14 weeks.
Galvalume lead times are being reported as averaging six weeks, which is the same as one month ago and one half week less than the 6.46 weeks reported at this time last year.
To see an interactive history of our Steel Mill Lead Time data, visit our website here.
John Packard
Read more from John PackardLatest in SMU Data and Models
SMU Survey: Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices contrast at year end
Both of our Sentiment Indices remain in positive territory and indicate that steel buyers are optimistic about the success of their businesses.
SMU Survey: Mill lead times contract slightly, remain short
Steel mill production times have seen very little change since September, according to buyers participating in our latest market survey.
SMU Survey: Buyers report mills are slightly less flexible on pricing
Steel buyers of sheet and plate products say mills are still willing to bend on spot pricing this week, though not quite as much as they were two weeks prior, according to our most recent survey data.
December energy market update
Trends in energy prices and active rig counts are leading demand indicators for oil country tubular goods (OCTG), line pipe and other steel products
Apparent steel supply remained near two-year low in October
Referred to as ‘apparent steel supply’, we calculate this volume by combining domestic steel mill shipments with finished US steel imports and deducting total US steel exports.