Final Thoughts

I was talking with one of the steel analysts this afternoon and we were debating where we thought the industry was in the cycle. We both were of the opinion the market was close (closer) to a bottom and the question was what would cause the market to rise? An announcement of a lockout was one tipping point mentioned. Another tipping point could possibly be the Preliminary Determination announcement on corrosion resistant steels which is due November 2nd. I mentioned that another tipping point could be a rush to buy as the market players know we are close to a bottom and that the domestic mills – especially US Steel, ArcelorMittal and AK Steel – will have to take down capacity.

We could see a short-term rally in prices, which our analysts put at +$40 per ton and not much more, in the coming weeks. That would put benchmark hot rolled average in the $440-$460 per ton versus our $410 per ton. This is not to say that $390 or $400 is out as a possibility within the next week to two weeks.

Something to think about: Since the beginning of January 2007 the lowest price average on hot rolled coil measured by Steel Market Update was $380 per ton which was reported on June 9, 2009. The market has been in a slow free fall since May 2014 when prices were reported at $685 per ton.

I spoke with a service center executive today who told me it is not demand that is driving prices lower. He said supply is what is driving prices. Supply includes foreign steel at cheap numbers as well as too much domestic chasing the remaining orders.

One of the Galvalume producing mills told me today that prices for AZ have come down $200+ per ton (domestically) and the same $100-$150 per ton spread between foreign and domestic pricing still exists. They questioned me as to how can that be?

I hope to learn more at Metalcon tomorrow.

As always your business is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update.

John Packard, Publisher