SMU Data and Models
Steel Mill Lead Times: Still One Week Shorter than Year Ago Levels
Written by John Packard
October 8, 2015
Flat rolled steel mill lead times remain historically short as the domestic mills struggle to keep their mills full. Based on the results from this week’s flat rolled steel market analysis (survey) we are seeing lead times at least one week shorter than this time last year on all products with the exception of Galvalume.
Hot rolled lead times remained about the same as what has been reported over the last couple of months. The average lead time based on our respondents was 3.19 weeks compared to 3.04 weeks (statistically insignificant) two weeks ago and 3.11 weeks at the beginning of September.
Cold rolled lead times dropped by about a half a week from 5.65 weeks two weeks ago down to 4.95 weeks this week. One year ago CR lead times were 6.04 weeks.
Galvanized lead times dropped from 5.83 weeks two weeks ago to 5.32 weeks this week. One year ago GI lead times were averaging 6.05 weeks according to those responding to our survey.
Galvalume lead times dropped one half week compared to two weeks ago but are only a third of a week less than one year ago.
Here is what lead times have averaged over the past year based on the results of SMU flat rolled steel market survey.
To see an interactive history of our Steel Mill Lead Time data, visit our website here.
John Packard
Read more from John PackardLatest in SMU Data and Models
SMU Survey: Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices contrast at year end
Both of our Sentiment Indices remain in positive territory and indicate that steel buyers are optimistic about the success of their businesses.
SMU Survey: Mill lead times contract slightly, remain short
Steel mill production times have seen very little change since September, according to buyers participating in our latest market survey.
SMU Survey: Buyers report mills are slightly less flexible on pricing
Steel buyers of sheet and plate products say mills are still willing to bend on spot pricing this week, though not quite as much as they were two weeks prior, according to our most recent survey data.
December energy market update
Trends in energy prices and active rig counts are leading demand indicators for oil country tubular goods (OCTG), line pipe and other steel products
Apparent steel supply remained near two-year low in October
Referred to as ‘apparent steel supply’, we calculate this volume by combining domestic steel mill shipments with finished US steel imports and deducting total US steel exports.