SMU Data and Models
Steel Mill Lead Times: Treading Water
Written by John Packard
August 6, 2015
With the exception of Galvalume, steel mill lead times were reported as being essentially unchanged from what was reported during the middle of July by those who responded to this week’s SMU flat rolled survey.
Hot rolled lead times continue to be one week shorter than what we measured one year ago and essentially unchanged from the middle of July. At 3.5 weeks we would consider hot rolled lead times to be slightly shorter than normal.
Cold rolled lead times were also unchanged from our last measurement in July. One year ago CRC (without a trade suit having been filed) saw lead times averaging 7 weeks. Now, with a trade suit having just been filed, we are closer to 5 and a half weeks. We have seen very little movement in CRC lead times going back to May 2015.
Galvanized lead times were also flat and have been going all the way back to the middle of May 2015. The 6 week average being reported this week is one week shorter than the 7 weeks reported one year ago.
Galvalume lead times were reported as being shorter this week than what we saw during the month of July as well as June. We are now back to the 6 week average we reported during the middle of May. Last year lead times were almost two weeks longer than what we just reported.
Lead times are suggesting that steel price momentum is muted at best. The lead times are better than what we reported during 1st Quarter 2015 and into early 2nd Quarter 2015.
To see an interactive history of our Steel Mill Lead Time data, visit our website here.
John Packard
Read more from John PackardLatest in SMU Data and Models
SMU Survey: Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices contrast at year end
Both of our Sentiment Indices remain in positive territory and indicate that steel buyers are optimistic about the success of their businesses.
SMU Survey: Mill lead times contract slightly, remain short
Steel mill production times have seen very little change since September, according to buyers participating in our latest market survey.
SMU Survey: Buyers report mills are slightly less flexible on pricing
Steel buyers of sheet and plate products say mills are still willing to bend on spot pricing this week, though not quite as much as they were two weeks prior, according to our most recent survey data.
December energy market update
Trends in energy prices and active rig counts are leading demand indicators for oil country tubular goods (OCTG), line pipe and other steel products
Apparent steel supply remained near two-year low in October
Referred to as ‘apparent steel supply’, we calculate this volume by combining domestic steel mill shipments with finished US steel imports and deducting total US steel exports.