Final Thoughts

June 3, 2015

I was pleased to hear from a number of our readers who had used the search function at the top right hand side of our website in order to find old articles that we had written on the subject of dumping suits and the process that the suit has to go through. I used the function myself to find the same articles (two of which are reproduced or partially reproduced in tonight’s issue). In my case I put in Roger Schagrin’s name in the search field and was able to come up with the articles I was looking for. Using a name like Roger’s or Lewis Leibowitz will get you much more specific results than putting in dumping or galvanized where we might have hundreds of articles.

We have a whole host of articles on the anti-dumping petition and related analysis in this evening’s edition. This way you can print it out and keep it handy should you have a need for a quick reference or talking points. You will also be able to bring it up easily when in the website.

Due to the flood of information we felt we needed to get out to our readers we have delayed releasing our Steel Buyers Sentiment Index, Lead Times, Negotiations and other survey related articles until Sunday’s edition of the newsletter. However, those who responded to our survey and our Premium level members will get access to the Power Point presentation sometime in the afternoon on Friday.

I have been in contact with a number of buyers and a number of steel mills. Each of the mills that I have spoken to have told me they have suspended any open spot quotes and, in at least one case, the mill order book for August had not yet opened. I also spoke with a number of trading companies who are evaluating pricing and what they are going to do with orders that are booked with countries listed in the petition.

I also spoke with a number of end users who have orders on the books for foreign products coming from the countries listed as well. At this moment most think the material will arrive before the mid to late August date. Also, the end users are not the importers of record and don’t have the risk regarding potential duties. But, they do have the risk of balancing their inventory needs.

When speaking with the ultra light gauge galvanized end users I found that most are either carrying substantial inventories or have developed alternate sources (both foreign and domestic) to protect themselves. As one said, at the price levels where foreign was being sold there was little downside risk to stocking up.

I am not getting a sense of any panic with galvanized or Galvalume buyers at this moment. I will remain in constant contact with both buyers and sellers to see if attitudes change as the suit moves forward.

My opinion is to watch lead times at all of the coating mills to see how quickly they move out of July and August production. Once we get into September lead times, then we have another issue to be cognizant of: USW negotiations with ArcelorMittal and US Steel.

A reminder that I will be in New York City next week holding a number of meetings with customers and steel sources. I have a limited number of openings in my schedule if you would like to meet with me. You can send me an email at: John@SteelMarketUpdate.com or call my cell to request a meeting: 770-596-6268.

I will be in Chicago on the 17th and 18th. I will be speaking at a Bank of America dinner on the 17th and will be attending the Association of Steel Distributors (ASD) regional meeting on the 18th.

For those of you interested in attending our 5th Steel Summit Conference on September 1 & 2 in Atlanta here are the details for the event: