SMU Data and Models

Steel Mill Lead Times Have Turned the Corner
Written by John Packard
May 21, 2015
According to the results of the Steel Market Update most recent flat rolled steel survey, domestic steel mill lead times are beginning to extend reflecting the improvement in the mills’ order books. We are, however, still far away from the lead times that we saw in the middle of May 2014.
Hot rolled lead times are now closer to 4 weeks (as an average) than the 3 weeks we reported in April of this year. One year ago HRC lead times were at 5 weeks.
Cold rolled lead times are now averaging 5.67 weeks, up slightly from the 5 weeks being reported in April but well below the 7 weeks of one year ago.
Galvanized lead times are now at 6 weeks, up from just over 5 weeks in April but below the 7 week average we reported one year ago.
Galvalume lead times are now at a 6 week average based on our respondents. This is up slightly from the 5.5 to 5.75 weeks we reported in April and below the 6.67 weeks we saw one year ago.
Again, lead times have improved but we should not consider the extension as significant enough to push buyers into the spot markets out of fear of running out of steel.
To view the interactive history of the graphic above, visit the Steel Mill Lead Times page on the Steel Market Update website here.

John Packard
Read more from John PackardLatest in SMU Data and Models

SMU’s June at a glance
A look at SMU data for the month of June.

SMU Survey: Buyers’ Sentiment rebounds from multi-year low
Both of SMU’s Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices edged higher this week. Current Sentiment rebounded from a near five-year low, while Future Sentiment rose to a two-month high

SMU flat-rolled market survey results now available
SMU’s latest steel buyers market survey results are now available on our website to all premium members.

SMU Survey: Sheet lead times pull back after early-June blip, plate holds
Following the uptick seen two weeks ago, lead times eased this week for all four sheet products tracked by SMU, while plate lead times held steady, according to this week’s market survey.

SMU Survey: Pricing power abruptly shifts to steel buyers
The majority of steel buyers responding to our latest market survey say domestic mills are more willing to talk price on sheet and plate products than they were earlier this month. Sheet negotiation rates rebounded across the board compared to early June, while our plate negotiation rate hit a full 100%.