Final Thoughts

Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
May 13, 2015
Short comments this evening as I am attending the Metals Industry Dinner (Boy Scout Dinner) in Chicago. The sentiment within the room was mostly optimistic, although there were a number of conversations about April not being a great month or not meeting expectations. This would help explain some of the weakness seen in the MSCI data which was reported earlier today.
There were a number of conversations about the upcoming negotiations between the USW and ArcelorMittal and US Steel. The thoughts were that AM would once again take a strict tone in negotiations.
The other issue being discussed was what were the chances for dumping suits to be filed. The opinions were running high that dumping suits would be filed soon – but, no one knows when “soon” will come. As Andre Marshall stated in his futures article this evening there has been a lot of “blah, blah, blah…” when it comes to the conversation about dumping suits. This conversation is well over a year old with no suits having been filed to date.
Congratulations to Lori Hahn of Steel Dynamics for receiving the Good Scout Award this evening for her work on the Boy Scout Dinner and raising money for scouting.
As always your business is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update.
John Packard, Publisher

John Packard
Read more from John PackardLatest in Final Thoughts

Final Thoughts
United Airlines raised eyebrows earlier this month when it provided two forecasts for 2025 – one assuming a relatively stable economy and another assuming a recession. The reason? Uncertainty around the impact of President Trump’s policy shocks on the broader economy. And it sometimes feels like we’re seeing a battle between those two narratives (stable vs recession) play out within in the pages of this newsletter.

Final Thoughts
Despite some scary headlines lately (especially about Trump potentially firing Fed Chair Jerome Powell) this is not October 2008 (financial crisis) or March 2020 (onset of the pandemic). But it sure seems like we’ve taken a relatively strong economy and poured a thick sauce of uncertainty over it.

Final Thoughts
I put some of our survey data through ChatGpt, with interesting results.

Final Thoughts
Nearly 50% of respondents to our latest survey thought hot-rolled coil prices have already peaked. And where will those prices be two months from now? Responses were decidedly split on that question.

Final Thoughts
A modest week-to-week change in HR price understates a huge swing in expectations.