Final Thoughts

Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
April 13, 2015
For those of you who are interested the Metal Service Center Institute (MSCI) shipment and inventory data is scheduled to be released tomorrow (Wednesday). We will have a full report for our Executive members in Thursday’s issue and our Apparent Excess and Price Forecast and another more detailed report for our Premium level members later this week.
Our Steel 101: Introduction to Steel Making & Market Fundamentals workshop is now about 60 percent full. We are looking forward to spring in the Chicago area and our visit to the NLMK USA steel mill which is located in Portage, Indiana. The dates for the workshop are May 19 & 20th and the location is the Radisson at Star Plaza in Merrillville, Indiana. Come join myself and my fine team of highly experienced steel instructors: John Eckstein, Peter Wright, Steve Painter and Mario Briccetti as we interact with our attendees about the steel making process, how steel is sold, where it is used, how qualities are produced, how commodities and world events impact pricing and what makes a good supplier/customer relationship and much more. Details can be found on our website or by clicking on this link. If you have any questions do not hesitate to contact me directly: 800-432-3475 or John@SteelMarketUpdate.com.
Chicago was the weakest market for ferrous scrap deals this month. This was due to little to no buying out of ArcelorMittal and US Steel as they both have taken down furnaces. Chicago area HMS was reported to be around $225 per gross ton, shredded around $235 per ton and busheling around $240 per ton. The rest of the country saw higher prices with the ranges being $225-$235 per gross ton for heavy melt, $255-$260 per gross ton on shred and $250-$260 per gross ton on busheling.
As always your business is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update.
John Packard, Publisher

John Packard
Read more from John PackardLatest in Final Thoughts

Final Thoughts
United Airlines raised eyebrows earlier this month when it provided two forecasts for 2025 – one assuming a relatively stable economy and another assuming a recession. The reason? Uncertainty around the impact of President Trump’s policy shocks on the broader economy. And it sometimes feels like we’re seeing a battle between those two narratives (stable vs recession) play out within in the pages of this newsletter.

Final Thoughts
Despite some scary headlines lately (especially about Trump potentially firing Fed Chair Jerome Powell) this is not October 2008 (financial crisis) or March 2020 (onset of the pandemic). But it sure seems like we’ve taken a relatively strong economy and poured a thick sauce of uncertainty over it.

Final Thoughts
I put some of our survey data through ChatGpt, with interesting results.

Final Thoughts
Nearly 50% of respondents to our latest survey thought hot-rolled coil prices have already peaked. And where will those prices be two months from now? Responses were decidedly split on that question.

Final Thoughts
A modest week-to-week change in HR price understates a huge swing in expectations.