Economy
March at a Glance
Written by John Packard
March 31, 2015
In the table below, Steel Market Update provides a snapshot look at various flat rolled steel pricing, commodities which impact steel prices and economic data of importance to the flat rolled steel industry.
One of the first items you will notice on the end of month table provided is we moved our Price Momentum indicator from Lower to Neutral during the third week of the month. As we explained at the time of our adjustment SMU does not think the slide has stopped only that conditions suggest that over the next 30 days we should begin to see prices change and perhaps move sideways instead of falling.
SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index remained well within the optimistic parameters of for our index. The month ended at Sentiment at +53 while the average of the two data points for the month was +51.
Future Sentiment at +61 is also well within the optimistic range of our index. The average of the two data points was +60 which is lower than the +63 average in February and +66 in January of this year.
The 3 month moving average (3MMA) for Sentiment also is showing an optimistic bunch of flat rolled steel buyers and sellers, albeit at a slightly lower level when compared to the two previous months’ data.
SMU hot rolled average for the month was $470 per ton versus $483 for Platts and $486 per ton for CRU.
Our cold rolled average for the month was $613 per ton, galvanized .060” G90 was $677 per ton and Galvalume .0142” AZ 50, Grade 80 averaged $907 per ton for the month of March.
The MSCI ended the month of February with 2.9 months of flat rolled steel inventories which we calculated to be in excess of where inventories should be by 850,000 tons (this is part of our Premium level products). Although not shown here we forecast flat rolled inventories as not coming back into balance until June or July of this year based on our model and making assumptions regarding shipments and receipts.
We have a number of other economic data points which we feel are important for our readers to take into consideration on a monthly basis. Tomorrow, we will report our Key Market Indicators to our Premium level members which goes into more detail and can be used for forecasting future movements in the steel markets.
John Packard
Read more from John PackardLatest in Economy
Architecture billings flat in October after months of contraction
Architecture firms reported stable billings in October, according to the latest Architecture Billings Index (ABI) released by the American Institute of Architects (AIA) and Deltek. This follows 20 months of contracting business conditions.
Trump taps Lutnick to be Commerce Secretary
President-elect Donald Trump has named Wall Street veteran Howard Lutnick as the new US Secretary of Commerce.
New York state manufacturing activity ramps up to multi-year high
New York state’s manufacturing sector saw substantial recovery in November, according to the latest Empire State Manufacturing Survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
CRU: Dollar and bond yields rise, metal prices fall as Trump wins election
Donald Trump has won the US presidential election. The Republican party has re-taken control of the Senate. Votes are still being counted in many tight congressional races. But based on results so far, the Republicans seem likely to maintain control of the House of Representatives. If confirmed, this will give Trump considerable scope to pass legislation pursuing his agenda. What this means for US policy is not immediately obvious. Trump will not be inaugurated until Jan. 20. In the coming weeks and months, he will begin to assemble his cabinet, which may give a clearer signal on his policy priorities and approaches. Based on statements he made during the presidential campaign, we have set out the likely direction of his economic policy here and green policy here.
ISM: Manufacturing index fell in Oct to lowest point of ’24
Domestic manufacturing contracted for the seventh straight month in October, according to the latest report from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). This marks the 23rd time in the last 24 months that it has been in contraction.