Steel Products Prices North America

SMU Price Ranges & Indices: $500 Hot Rolled Getting Closer...

January 27, 2015

“Where does the elevator stop,” is what one flat rolled steel buyer told Steel Market Update during a phone conversation about pricing held earlier today. “I haven’t hit the panic button yet, but my finger is close…”

Flat rolled steel prices continued to tumble as some mill salespeople were telling their customers they have been told “not to lose an order to price.” Many buyers are talking about benchmark hot rolled prices falling to the “pinch” point of $500 per ton or slightly below. Based on the rate of weekly price change ($10 to $20 per week) and a forecast drop in scrap prices of $25 to $50 in February, we could well see hot rolled break through the $500 barrier on the low end of our range next week.

One of our service center contacts told us, “Spot numbers can now be comfortably described as in “free-fall”. We all knew this day would come, and that it was necessary to occur, in an attempt to significantly reduce future foreign orders from being placed. Spot prices are falling quickly and pegging the average now is a difficult task, given the day-to-day changes. Worst still, most buyers are watching the majority of this happen from the sidelines, since their true needs are nil.”

A manufacturing company told SMU that they would be basing any potential purchases off of base hot rolled at $500 per ton. This would put them at $600-$620 on cold rolled and $30.00/cwt base price on coated (suggested offers to buy – not yet transaction prices). Other buyers are suggesting similar buying strategies.

The good news is the spread between foreign and domestic should be tightening. The bad news is scrap prices are forecast to drop by $25 to $50 per gross ton which will put pressure on the mills to continue to lower flat rolled prices.

Here is how we see flat rolled prices this week:

Hot Rolled Coil: SMU Range is $520-$560 per ton ($26.00/cwt- $28.00/cwt) with an average of $540 per ton ($27.00/cwt) FOB mill, east of the Rockies. The lower end of our range declined by $10 per ton compared to one week ago while the upper end declined by $30 per ton. Our average is now $20 per ton lower than last week. SMU price momentum for hot rolled steel is for prices to move lower over the next 30 days.

Hot Rolled Lead Times: 2-4 weeks.

Cold Rolled Coil: SMU Range is $640-$700 per ton ($32.00/cwt- $35.00/cwt) with an average of $670 per ton ($33.0/cwt) FOB mill, east of the Rockies. The lower end of our range remained unchanged compared to last week while the upper end declined by $10 per ton. Our average is now $5 per ton lower than one week ago. SMU price momentum on cold rolled steel is for prices to move lower over the next 30 days.

Cold Rolled Lead Times: 4-8 weeks.

Galvanized Coil: SMU Base Price Range is $33.00/cwt-$35.00/cwt ($660-$700 per ton) with an average of $34.00/cwt ($680 per ton) FOB mill, east of the Rockies. The lower end of our range declined by $10 per ton compared to one week ago while the upper end declined by $30 per ton. Our average is now $20 per ton lower than last week. SMU anticipates galvanized prices will move lower over the next 30 days.

Galvanized .060” G90 Benchmark: SMU Range is $729-$769 per ton with an average of $749 per ton FOB mill, east of the Rockies.

Galvanized Lead Times: 4-8 weeks.

Galvalume Coil: SMU Base Price Range is $33.00/cwt-$36.00/cwt ($660-$720 per ton) with an average of $34.50/cwt ($690 per ton) FOB mill, east of the Rockies. The lower end of our range declined by $30 per ton compared to last week while the upper end declined by $10 per ton. Our average is now $20 per ton lower than one week ago. Our expectation is for Galvalume prices to move lower over the next 30 days.

Galvalume .0142” AZ50, Grade 80 Benchmark: SMU Range is $951-$1011 per ton with an average of $981 per ton FOB mill, east of the Rockies.

Galvalume Lead Times: 5-7 weeks.

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