SMU Data and Models

SMU Survey: Domestic Mill Lead Times

November 20, 2014

Last year at this time hot rolled steel prices averaged $670 per ton and were close to the peak for the year which was $680 per ton (SMU index HRC average). Lead times peaked the first week in December on all flat rolled with the exception of Galvalume. From mid-December 2013 until the middle of February 2014 lead times shrunk as did our HRC average which bottomed at $620 per ton by the middle of March 2014.

The total move in HRC pricing was $60 per ton from peak to valley before moving up to $685 per ton by early May and we have been on a very slow drift lower since then with our current number only $50 per ton lower than the cycle peak ($635 vs. $685).

Based on the results from our flat rolled steel market survey, we are seeing lead times at very similar levels to what we saw at this time last year:

Hot rolled is 3.81 weeks now versus 4.00 weeks one year ago.

Cold rolled is 6.05 weeks now versus 6.00 weeks one year ago.

Galvanized is 6.14 weeks now versus 6.46 weeks one year ago.

Galvalume is 6.46 weeks versus 6.22 weeks one year ago.

The biggest difference is last year at this time the domestic mills were already experiencing equipment, especially blast furnace, issues. This year we should see these issues resolved as AK Steel, US Steel and ArcelorMittal have conducted maintenance on a number of their key blast furnaces and BOF’s.

Below is an interactive graphic of the Steel Market Update Steel Mill Lead Time History, but it can only be seen when you are logged into the website and reading the newsletter online. If you need any assistance logging in or navigating the website, contact us at info@SteelMarketUpdate.com or 800-432-3475.

{amchart id=”112″ SMU Lead Times by Product- Survey}