SMU Data and Models
SMU Survey: Domestic Mill Lead Times
Written by John Packard
November 20, 2014
Last year at this time hot rolled steel prices averaged $670 per ton and were close to the peak for the year which was $680 per ton (SMU index HRC average). Lead times peaked the first week in December on all flat rolled with the exception of Galvalume. From mid-December 2013 until the middle of February 2014 lead times shrunk as did our HRC average which bottomed at $620 per ton by the middle of March 2014.
The total move in HRC pricing was $60 per ton from peak to valley before moving up to $685 per ton by early May and we have been on a very slow drift lower since then with our current number only $50 per ton lower than the cycle peak ($635 vs. $685).
Based on the results from our flat rolled steel market survey, we are seeing lead times at very similar levels to what we saw at this time last year:
Hot rolled is 3.81 weeks now versus 4.00 weeks one year ago.
Cold rolled is 6.05 weeks now versus 6.00 weeks one year ago.
Galvanized is 6.14 weeks now versus 6.46 weeks one year ago.
Galvalume is 6.46 weeks versus 6.22 weeks one year ago.
The biggest difference is last year at this time the domestic mills were already experiencing equipment, especially blast furnace, issues. This year we should see these issues resolved as AK Steel, US Steel and ArcelorMittal have conducted maintenance on a number of their key blast furnaces and BOF’s.
Below is an interactive graphic of the Steel Market Update Steel Mill Lead Time History, but it can only be seen when you are logged into the website and reading the newsletter online. If you need any assistance logging in or navigating the website, contact us at info@SteelMarketUpdate.com or 800-432-3475.
{amchart id=”112″ SMU Lead Times by Product- Survey}
John Packard
Read more from John PackardLatest in SMU Data and Models
SMU Survey: Current Buyers’ Sentiment Index jumps, Future Sentiment slips
SMU’s Current Buyers’ Sentiment Index rocketed up this week, while the Future Buyers’ Sentiment Index edged down. The two indices are almost at parity.
SMU Survey: Mill lead times stretch to 10-month highs
Buyers responding to our latest market survey reported that steel mill lead times were stretching out this week for sheet and plate products tracked by SMU. The results weren’t much of a surprise. Production times have begun moving out following a wave of frenzied buying in response to stricter Section 232 announced by the Trump […]
SMU Survey: Mills slam door on buyers looking to talk price
Mills’ flexibility on price for spot orders has taken a nosedive to levels not seen since the end of March 2023.
SMU Survey: Steel Buyers’ Sentiment indicates increased optimism
After reaching multi-month lows in mid-January, SMU’s Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices rebounded this week to some of the highest readings recorded in months.
SMU Survey: Mill lead times fluctuate, extensions expected
While we have seen some movements in recent weeks, steel mill production times remain within a few days of the historical lows observed over the last two years, a trend observed since mid-2024.