Steel Products Prices North America

SMU Price Ranges & Indices: Watching & Waiting

Written by John Packard

November 18, 2014

Steel Market Update (SMU) is seeing flat rolled steel prices as drifting at this time. We saw slight adjustments in both the upper and lower end of our range on hot rolled compressing our range. Cold rolled was up by $5 per ton while galvanized was unchanged and Galvalume was lower. Market players are sitting back and watching the market not quite sure what to make of it at this time. We heard on a number of occasions that the mills were trying to hold the line on pricing “but if you have orders to place” they are willing to negotiate.

One mill source told us this evening, “It seems we are back to the same picture we were seeing for three months prior to the increase announcements, a little more bleeding, a slow drip.” They went on to say, “I think the increases held up pricing for about 3 to 4 weeks, but now we are back to what had become normal. I hope I am wrong and that the week after Thanksgiving there is enough business to keep mills full enough that they can truly draw the line in the sand, but….”

During the HARDI steel conference call held this morning we heard one service center say that the mills are trying to stabilize the market but, it is too early to tell what will happen from here. We need for the mills to close out their 4th Quarter order books and see where supply and demand will be as we enter what is normally a stronger part of the year – 1st Quarter.

We also need to get the 2015 contracts put to bed so that the mills have a better idea as to what business they can plan on versus that business which will be spot (or foreign).

Here is how we see prices this week:

Hot Rolled Coil: SMU Range is $610-$650 per ton ($30.50/cwt- $32.50/cwt) with an average of $635 per ton ($31.75/cwt) FOB mill, east of the Rockies. We saw the range on hot rolled shrink compared to where we saw prices late last week and over the weekend. The lower end of our range increased by $10 per ton while the upper end decreased by $10 per ton. Our average remained the same at $635 per ton. SMU price momentum for hot rolled steel is for prices to drift and trend lower over the next 30 days.

Hot Rolled Lead Times: 2-5 weeks.

Cold Rolled Coil: SMU Range is $740-$770 per ton ($37.00/cwt- $38.50/cwt) with an average of $755 per ton ($37.75/cwt) FOB mill, east of the Rockies. The lower end of our range increased by $10 per ton compared to the previous week while the upper end remained the same. Our average is up $5 per ton over one week ago. SMU price momentum on cold rolled steel is for prices to drift and trend lower over the next 30 days.

Cold Rolled Lead Times: 5-9 weeks.

Galvanized Coil: SMU Base Price Range is $35.00/cwt-$38.00/cwt ($700-$760 per ton) with an average of $36.50/cwt ($730 per ton) FOB mill, east of the Rockies. Both the upper and lower ends of our range are unchanged compared to our previous price indexes, as did our average. SMU anticipates galvanized prices will drift and trend lower over the next 30 days.

Galvanized .060” G90 Benchmark: SMU Range is $769-$829 per ton with an average of $799 per ton FOB mill, east of the Rockies.

Galvanized Lead Times: 4-9 weeks.

Galvalume Coil: SMU Base Price Range is $36.00/cwt-$38.50/cwt ($720-$770 per ton) with an average of $37.25/cwt ($745 per ton) FOB mill, east of the Rockies. Both the lower and upper ends of our range decreased by $10 per ton compared to the previous week. Our average is now $10 per ton lower compared to one week ago. Our expectation is for Galvalume prices to drift and trend lower over the next 30 days.

Galvalume .0142” AZ50, Grade 80 Benchmark: SMU Range is $1011-$1061 per ton with an average of $1036 per ton FOB mill, east of the Rockies.

Galvalume Lead Times: 5-9 weeks.

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John Packard

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