Analysis
Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
October 29, 2014
I adjusted the SMU Price Momentum Indicator from Lower to Neutral in recognition of the attempt by the domestic steel mills to reverse the price trend and move prices higher. A Neutral indicator means prices could move in either direction (or remain stable) over the next 30 days.
I understand two mills have made very modest price announcements of $20 per ton (AK Steel & US Steel). A third mill, Nucor, began verbally telling their customers today that their prices are up $20 per ton. However, I have not yet seen some of the other mills, who would normally fall in line with the AK and USS moves, making their announcements.
The initial reaction from steel buyers is generally supportive (service centers) although not necessarily enough to create a surge of buying at the higher numbers. We will have to watch and see what the “tone” of negotiations will be in the coming days. So far we are hearing the attempts to “push” prices as being somewhat feeble.
One of the coated service centers (galvanized & Galvalume) when asked about any new price announcements informed SMU that there were none. At the same time he pointed out the huge disparity between pricing in the south and that being seen in the Midwest and Great Lakes region of the U.S. He pegged the variance at close to or exceeding $100 per ton ($5.00/cwt).
Coated lead times from non-automotive steel mills are in late November and into December.
I will see what I can learn as I mingle with service centers attending the Association of Steel Distributors (ASD) meeting in Las Vegas beginning this evening.
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John Packard, Publisher
John Packard
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