Economy

Surprise Decline for Durable Goods Orders

October 28, 2014

Durable goods orders unexpectedly fell 1.3 percent in September for a second consecutive monthly decline. The drop follows a tumble of 18.3 percent in August. Economists were forecasting a gain of 0.5 percent for September.

The disappointing performance may lead economists to revise forecasts for the third quarter GDP scheduled for release on Thursday. Current forecasts anticipate a 3 percent annualized rate for third quarter after a strong 4.6 percent gain in second quarter.

The Census Bureau press release issued today read as follows:

New orders for manufactured durable goods in September decreased $3.2 billion or 1.3 percent to $241.6 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This decrease, down two consecutive months, followed an 18.3 percent August decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 0.2 percent. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 1.5 percent.

Transportation equipment, also down two consecutive months, led the decrease, $2.8 billion or 3.7 percent to $73.4 billion.

Shipments of manufactured durable goods in September, up three of the last four months, increased$0.1 billion or 0.1 percent to $245.6 billion. This followed a 1.8 percent August decrease. Fabricated metal products, up eight of the last nine months, drove the increase, $0.2 billion or 0.6 percent to $30.5 billion.

Unfilled orders for manufactured durable goods in September, up seventeen of the last eighteen months, increased $3.8 billion or 0.3 percent to $1,168.7 billion. This was at the highest level since the series was first published on a NAICS basis in 1992 and followed a 0.6percent August increase.

Transportation equipment, up twelve of the last thirteen months, led the increase, $1.0 billion or 0.1 percent to $742.7 billion.

Inventories of manufactured durable goods in September, up seventeen of the last eighteen months, increased $1.8 billion or 0.4 percent to $404.8 billion. This was at the highest level since the series was first published on a NAICS basis and followed a 0.4 percent August increase. Transportation equipment, also up seventeen of the last eighteen months, led the increase, $1.0 billion or 0.8percent to $130.9 billion.

Non-defense new orders for capital goods in September decreased $4.6 billion or 5.4 percent to $82.0 billion. Shipments increased $0.4 billion or 0.5 percent to $80.2billion. Unfilled orders increased $1.8 billion or 0.2percent to $733.3 billion. Inventories increased $1.1billion or 0.6 percent to $184.9 billion.

Defense new orders for capital goods in September increased $0.6 billion or 7.4 percent to $9.4 billion. Shipments decreased $0.1 billion or 1.3 percent to $9.7billion. Unfilled orders decreased $0.3 billion or 0.2percent to $157.8 billion. Inventories decreased $0.3billion or 1.2 percent to $23.6 billion.

Revised seasonally adjusted August figures for all manufacturing industries were: new orders, $502.2billion (revised from $502.0 billion); shipments, $502.8billion (revised from $503.1 billion); unfilled orders, $1,164.9 billion (revised from $1,164.5 billion).

Below is an interactive graphic of Durable Goods, but it can only be seen when you are logged into the website and reading the newsletter online. If you need any assistance logging in or navigating the website, contact us at info@SteelMarketUpdate.com or 800-432-3475.

{amchart id=”119″ Durable Goods Shipments and New Orders 3MMA}