SMU Data and Models

SMU Price Ranges & Indices: Market Waits to See What Will Consolidation Bring?

September 17, 2014

Spot prices remained stable this week as steel buyers wait to see how the absorption of Severstal by AK Steel and Steel Dynamics will affect the marketplace. It is anticipated that it could take 3-4 weeks before we get a clear indication as to how the commercial departments for each mill will integrate the former Severstal employees into their operations.

Here is how we are seeing flat rolled steel prices this week:

Hot Rolled Coil: SMU Range is $640-$680 per ton ($32.00/cwt-$34.00/cwt) with an average of $660 per ton ($33.00/cwt) FOB mill, east of the Rockies. Both the upper and lower end of our range remained the same as did our average. Our survey results (to date) indicate a bunching of the price offers from $660 to $670 per ton. We continue to have a Neutral opinion on pricing as we wait for the consolidation of Severstal NA by AK Steel and Steel Dynamics.

Hot Rolled Lead Times: 2-5 weeks.

Cold Rolled Coil: SMU Range is $760-$800 per ton ($37.50/cwt-$40.00/cwt) with an average of $775 per ton ($38.75/cwt) FOB mill, east of the Rockies. The upper end of our range expanded this week by $10 per ton. At the same time, the lower end of our range dropped by $10 per ton. The net result was our average remained the same as last week. SMU continues to have a Neutral opinion on pricing over the next 30 days as we wait to see what impact the consolidation of Severstal will have on the market.

Cold Rolled Lead Times: 5-9 weeks.

Galvanized Coil: SMU Base Price Range is $38.00/cwt-$40.00/cwt ($760-$800 per ton) with an average of $39.00/cwt ($780 per ton) FOB mill, east of the Rockies. The lower end of our price range dropped by $10 per ton while the upper end of our range remained intact compared to one week ago. We anticipate there will be some fluctuations in galvanized base prices as the buyers and mills work through the new coating extras. SMU continues to have a Neutral opinion on pricing over the next 30 days as we wait to see what impact consolidation will have on the market.

Galvanized .060” G90 Benchmark: SMU range is $41.45/cwt-$43.45/cwt ($829-$869 per ton) with an average of $42.45/cwt ($849 per ton) FOB mill, east of the Rockies. SMU Note: We are now using $3.45/cwt or $69 per ton extra in order to calculate the .060” G90 pricing.

Galvanized Lead Times: 4-9 weeks.

Galvalume Coil: SMU Base Price Range is $38.00/cwt-$40.50/cwt ($760-$810 per ton) with an average of $39.25/cwt ($785 per ton) plus applicable extras, FOB mill, east of the Rockies. We are seeing some foreign related stress on pricing out of the southern region of the country as the lower end of our range dropped by $10 per ton while the upper end of our range remained the same. We are picking up some outliers at the lower end of the range and again, we feel these are related to moves by one or more domestic mills as they try to combat foreign pricing. SMU continues to have a Neutral opinion on Galvalume pricing not because of consolidation but in anticipation of a potential dumping suit being filed against foreign steel.

Galvalume .0142” AZ50, Grade 80 Benchmark: SMU range is $1051-$1101 per ton with an average of $1076 per ton FOB mill, east of the Rockies.

Galvalume Lead Times: 5-9 weeks.