SMU Data and Models
Mill Lead Times: Starting to Move Out
Written by John Packard
August 7, 2014
Domestic steel mill lead times on flat rolled steel are starting to extend compared to what we measured two weeks back. For most of the year lead times have been running within a relatively narrow window (see graph). The new data is suggesting lead times may be breaking above normal patterns.
Based on our latest flat rolled steel survey results, the average lead time for hot rolled coils moved from 4.23 week (mid-July) to 4.63 weeks. This is in line with what we saw for lead times one year ago when hot rolled averaged 4.5 weeks.
Cold rolled lead times also move out to 7.00 weeks from 6.68 week reported in mid-July. This is slightly longer than what we saw last year at this time when CR lead times averaged 6.35 weeks.
Galvanized lead times also moved out by half a week. The latest average lead time for GI is 7.03 weeks compared with 6.50 weeks in mid-July.
Galvalume lead times extended the furthest according to those who responded to this week’s survey. AZ lead times averaged 7.90 weeks up from 7.11 weeks in mid-July and one week longer than the 6.82 weeks reported at this time one year ago.
Lead times moving out is a good sign of strength for the domestic steel mills and for flat rolled steel pricing. We will be curious to see if the addition of the #7 blast furnace at ArcelorMittal Indiana Harbor will have any impact on lead times in the coming weeks.
A full history of our lead time data for each individual product can be found on our website by going to the Analysis Tab > Survey Results > Lead Times or by clicking here.
John Packard
Read more from John PackardLatest in SMU Data and Models
SMU market survey results now available
SMU’s latest steel buyers market survey results are now available on our website to all premium members. After logging in at steelmarketupdate.com, visit the pricing and analysis tab and look under the “survey results” section for “latest survey results.” Past survey results are also available under that selection. If you need help accessing the survey results, or if […]
SMU Survey: Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices rebound
Following months of fluctuations, SMU’s Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices rebounded this week, now at multi-month highs. Both of our Indices remain in positive territory and indicate that steel buyers are optimistic about the success of their businesses.
SMU Survey: Mill lead times remain stable and short
Steel buyers participating in our market survey this week reported stable mill lead times for both sheet and plate steel products.
SMU Survey: Most buyers report mills still willing to talk price
Most steel buyers SMU polled this week reported that mills remain willing to negotiate new order pricing.
October service center shipments and inventories report
Flat rolled = 63.4 shipping days of supply Plate = 52.4 shipping days of supply Flat rolled shipments and inventories Flat-rolled steel supply at US service centers remains seasonally high. October inventories increased after edging lower in September – a dynamic driven largely by disappointing demand. October’s report reflects lower demand and stable lead times […]