Final Thoughts

Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
February 28, 2014
Based on local news reports as well as information from Steel Market Update flat rolled sheet sources, the blast furnace issue at AK Steel Ashland was due to a break out at the bottom of the vessel. A break out is when molten pig iron penetrates the outer wall of the blast furnace. Since the crack(s) are reported to be at the bottom of Amanda (the name of the AK Ashland blast furnace) repairs are not easy and are expected that they will take a few weeks to complete.
On Monday we will begin our early March steel market survey. Invitations should go out around 8 AM ET. If you receive an invitation please take a few minutes, click on the link contained in the invitation and complete the survey.
We continue to gather information regarding our Fall 2014 Steel Summit. We have been thinking of making major modifications (length, content, location, dates, etc.) and we would truly appreciate your feedback. Here is a LINK to the survey which consist of 5 questions.
This is the kind of feedback we are looking for (if you would like to send me a direct email), “Please, please, please, don’t have any speakers talk about their own company in any way, not to discuss their approach to people, their approach to hedging, etc., etc. I’ve never seen/heard anyone do this in a way that wasn’t self serving and boring, sometimes mind numbingly so. Public companies can’t say much about their companies that isn’t already on their web sites and press releases and private companies love themselves too much.”
As I mentioned in Thursday night’s issue of SMU – I was impressed with the program and quality of the speakers at the FMA Toll Processors Conference. They had a nice mix of economic forecasts, educational programs and entertainment. I am thinking of reducing the exposure to steel mills and other companies who, as the person who made the comment above said, are self-serving and don’t add any value to the group. So, your comments do make a difference.
If you would like to send something directly to me you can do so at, John@SteelMarketUpdate.com.
As always your business is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update.
John Packard, Publisher
Want more information about Premium, Executive or Monthly subscription levels? Click HERE.
We have Advertising space available – LEARN MORE HERE.

John Packard
Read more from John PackardLatest in Final Thoughts

Final Thoughts
Tariff-related noise aside, there is one basic factor keeping buyers on the sidelines. Despite recent declines, HR prices remain at historically high levels. And there is no obvious support to keep them there.

Final Thoughts
United Airlines raised eyebrows earlier this month when it provided two forecasts for 2025 – one assuming a relatively stable economy and another assuming a recession. The reason? Uncertainty around the impact of President Trump’s policy shocks on the broader economy. And it sometimes feels like we’re seeing a battle between those two narratives (stable vs recession) play out within in the pages of this newsletter.

Final Thoughts
Despite some scary headlines lately (especially about Trump potentially firing Fed Chair Jerome Powell) this is not October 2008 (financial crisis) or March 2020 (onset of the pandemic). But it sure seems like we’ve taken a relatively strong economy and poured a thick sauce of uncertainty over it.

Final Thoughts
I put some of our survey data through ChatGpt, with interesting results.

Final Thoughts
Nearly 50% of respondents to our latest survey thought hot-rolled coil prices have already peaked. And where will those prices be two months from now? Responses were decidedly split on that question.