SMU Data and Models

Domestic Mill Spot Negotiations

February 23, 2014

All flat rolled steel prices, with the exception of cold rolled (and plate which we do not currently measure), were reported as being more negotiable at the domestic mills this past week. This result is based on the Steel Market Update proprietary flat rolled steel market survey which was concluded last Thursday (February 20th).

Eighty-eight percent of our survey respondents reported the domestic mills as being willing to negotiate hot rolled prices. This is higher than the 76 percent reported at the beginning of the month and a huge move since the beginning of the year when we measured negotiations on hot rolled at 35 percent.

Cold rolled was the one item where the percentages had not changed since the beginning of the month through last week. Even though there was no movement recorded, more than half the respondents (56 percent) reported the domestic mills as willing to negotiate.

Galvanized, like hot rolled above, has seen the percentage of our survey respondents reporting the mills as willing to negotiate pricing growing steadily since the beginning of the year. As of this past week, 85 percent of our respondents reported the mills as willing to negotiate galvanized prices.

Galvalume, which had been holding its own for going back to early 4th Quarter 2013, saw a big jump in the percentage of respondents indicating the domestic mills as willing to negotiate AZ prices. At the beginning of February only 33 percent of our survey respondents reported Galvalume prices as being negotiable. As of last week that number jumped to 73 percent.

To put price negotiations into perspective: One year ago (mid February) benchmark hot rolled pricing was $610 per ton compared to the current SMU HRC average of $645 per ton. On January 1, 2013 hot rolled pricing averaged $635 per ton. By the middle of February, HRC prices had already dropped $25 per ton.

What happened last year was the price decline bounced around the $600-$620 level from the middle of January to the middle of April. At that point in time prices began dropping again and bottomed out at $565 per ton the third week of May 2013.

This year (2014) began with HRC average prices being $680 per ton which was the peak of the most recent “up” cycle and the highest point for prices this year. Since then prices have declined by $35 per ton to last week’s $645 per ton.

You may find it interesting to view the history SMU has compiled on Mill Spot Negotiations. We have provided the interactive graph below for your review. You will need to be logged into the website in order to view the graphic as it is stored on our server. Otherwise you will just see an open white space where the graphic is located. If you have not logged into the website before and need assistance either in re-setting your login and password or how to navigate the website please let us know: info@SteelMarketUpdate.com or by phone: 800-432-3475. We want you to get the most out of your membership and we would be pleased to assist you with our website.

{amchart id=”113″ SMU Negotiations by Product}