Economy

ISM Steel Buyers Looking Forward to Stronger Orders

Written by Sandy Williams

February 6, 2014

Steel buyers in the ISM Steel Buyers Survey are expecting an increase in new orders in the next three months. Of those surveyed, 46.7 percent are expecting business to improve in the early months of 2014, up from only 18.2 percent in December. Backlogs in the next three months are expected to increase said 33.3 percent (up from 18.2 percent in December) while 53.3 percent of buyers expect backlogs to remain the same.

Tons on hand will cover shipping levels for 0-1 months for 33.3 percent of respondents, 1-2 months for 40 percent, and 2-3 months for 26.7 percent. The percentage of those with shipping levels for 0-1 month jumped from 18.2 percent in December. Tons on hand are relatively unchanged from 12 months ago or slightly down. Inventory to demand was considered about right for 73.3 percent of respondents.

Current order book at present production rates and with no new orders is expected to last 1-2 months said 35.7 percent, 2-4 months said 42.9 percent. 4-6 months said 7.1 percent and 6+ months said 14.3 percent. Almost half, 46.7 percent said incoming order levels are below that needed for most efficient operating levels.

Shipping levels are about the same as three months ago but compared to twelve months ago, 46.7 percent say levels are higher.

Selling prices for products were viewed as competitive by 80 percent of steel buyers surveyed.

Steel buyers were optimistic that general economic activity would improve over the next six months, with nearly half expecting the trend of sales and production in their industry to rise.

In January 13.3 percent of buyers said they have workforce on short time or layoff, up from zero percent in December.

Most companies (86.7 percent) are not planning on any building or buying of new facilities in 2014 and slightly less than half expect to increase hiring.

Foreign mill prices are below or well below domestic levels said 60 percent of buyers surveyed. There has been some increase in how aggressively foreign mills are seeking US business. Compared to past practice, 66.7 percent said their dependence on off-shore sources will be the same for the next six months, up from 55.6 percent in December.

Sandy Williams

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