Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
January 27, 2014
It snowed in Georgia and South Carolina today. Nucor Berkeley put out an announcement that their shipping and sales personnel had been sent home early. I thought it might be a good time to double check the forecast for Mobile for next Tuesday and Wednesday which is where we are holding our next Steel 101 workshop. The forecast is for 70 degrees on Tuesday and 60 degrees on Wednesday.
Going back to the snow in Georgia. My office is about 50 miles Northeast of downtown Atlanta. The forecast for here was flurries with the bulk of the snow forecast to hit south of Atlanta. It is now Tuesday evening and as I look out my window I am gazing at 3″ of snow on the ground.
Every time it snows in Georgia I go back to my first winter here. I had moved down from Minnesota where I had gone to college and lived for 10 years. That first winter here the forecast was for a few inches of snow and people were panicking in their apartments around me. For some reason people in the south can never have two many gallons of milk in their refrigerator when it snows…
The next day I woke up to 4 or 5 inches of snow on the ground and I immediately got in my car and drove to work, which was about six miles away from my apartment. No one was on the road but me and one under-trained police vehicle. I know they were under trained as I watch the police car slow down as it approached a small hill. He was still doing donuts at the bottom of that hill when my little Toyota scampered by.
Of course, being a new guy I didn’t have keys to the office and I was the only one who showed up in that parking lot that day.
Not much has changed in the years since – except now I stay home and watch the crazies on TV who try to imitate that policeman of many years ago.
Snow or no snow our office is open in the morning.
As always we thank you for your business which is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update.
John Packard, Publisher
John Packard
Read more from John PackardLatest in Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
United Airlines raised eyebrows earlier this month when it provided two forecasts for 2025 – one assuming a relatively stable economy and another assuming a recession. The reason? Uncertainty around the impact of President Trump’s policy shocks on the broader economy. And it sometimes feels like we’re seeing a battle between those two narratives (stable vs recession) play out within in the pages of this newsletter.
Final Thoughts
Despite some scary headlines lately (especially about Trump potentially firing Fed Chair Jerome Powell) this is not October 2008 (financial crisis) or March 2020 (onset of the pandemic). But it sure seems like we’ve taken a relatively strong economy and poured a thick sauce of uncertainty over it.
Final Thoughts
I put some of our survey data through ChatGpt, with interesting results.
Final Thoughts
Nearly 50% of respondents to our latest survey thought hot-rolled coil prices have already peaked. And where will those prices be two months from now? Responses were decidedly split on that question.
Final Thoughts
A modest week-to-week change in HR price understates a huge swing in expectations.