Final Thoughts

Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
December 13, 2013
The marketplace is buzzing as to why the mills east of the Rockies have not yet made a price increase announcement. Someone mentioned to me last week that ArcelorMittal could not push prices higher without attracting attention to themselves due to the announced purchase of ThyssenKrupp Steel USA.
AM does not want to be accused of price fixing. We also heard last week from a number of Nucor customers who felt that Nucor would not be the price leader as they have upset a number of their contract and previous contract customers during the negotiation process. The Nucor customers felt that if the mill made an announcement it would just be rubbing salt in an open wound. U.S. Steel generally does not like to go public with their price announcements. AK Steel and Severstal led last time and still have announcements out there which did not gain traction or support from most of the other mills. SDI never leads with price announcements. This leaves NLMK USA and a couple of conversion and smaller mini-mills.
We would like to hear from our readers – both as to what you think will happen over the next few months as well as what the domestic mills are telling you in their communications with you.
Steel Market Update will conduct our last steel market analysis beginning on Monday of this week. If you would like to be added to our invitee list please send me an email: John@SteelMarketUpdate.com.
I want to take a moment to congratulate Brett Linton who officially graduated from college today. Brett was our first employee hired and he will continue on with Steel Market Update as a full time employee now that his studies have been completed.
As always we want to take a moment to thank you our customers for you business and your recommendations to others to try Steel Market Update. Your business and kind words are truly appreciated.
John Packard, Publisher, Steel Market Update

John Packard
Read more from John PackardLatest in Final Thoughts

Final Thoughts
United Airlines raised eyebrows earlier this month when it provided two forecasts for 2025 – one assuming a relatively stable economy and another assuming a recession. The reason? Uncertainty around the impact of President Trump’s policy shocks on the broader economy. And it sometimes feels like we’re seeing a battle between those two narratives (stable vs recession) play out within in the pages of this newsletter.

Final Thoughts
Despite some scary headlines lately (especially about Trump potentially firing Fed Chair Jerome Powell) this is not October 2008 (financial crisis) or March 2020 (onset of the pandemic). But it sure seems like we’ve taken a relatively strong economy and poured a thick sauce of uncertainty over it.

Final Thoughts
I put some of our survey data through ChatGpt, with interesting results.

Final Thoughts
Nearly 50% of respondents to our latest survey thought hot-rolled coil prices have already peaked. And where will those prices be two months from now? Responses were decidedly split on that question.

Final Thoughts
A modest week-to-week change in HR price understates a huge swing in expectations.