Final Thoughts

Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
October 6, 2013
I am in Blytheville, Arkansas making final preparations for our Steel 101: Introduction to Steelmaking & Market Fundamentals workshop. We have a full class which will tour the Nucor Hickman facility on Tuesday afternoon.
We will send out a complimentary issue of our latest Monthly Newsletter on Monday. Once our new website comes online we will begin selling the Monthly Newsletter as a stand-alone product. The price for new customers will be $300 per year (12 issues). In the beginning we will offer our existing customers the opportunity to receive the Monthly Newsletter as well for an additional $100 on top of the single membership rate. For corporate pricing please contact our office: info@SteelMarketUpdate.com.
Thank you to everyone who spent time with either John Temples or myself at Metalcon last week.
As always your business is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update.

John Packard
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Final Thoughts
United Airlines raised eyebrows earlier this month when it provided two forecasts for 2025 – one assuming a relatively stable economy and another assuming a recession. The reason? Uncertainty around the impact of President Trump’s policy shocks on the broader economy. And it sometimes feels like we’re seeing a battle between those two narratives (stable vs recession) play out within in the pages of this newsletter.

Final Thoughts
Despite some scary headlines lately (especially about Trump potentially firing Fed Chair Jerome Powell) this is not October 2008 (financial crisis) or March 2020 (onset of the pandemic). But it sure seems like we’ve taken a relatively strong economy and poured a thick sauce of uncertainty over it.

Final Thoughts
I put some of our survey data through ChatGpt, with interesting results.

Final Thoughts
Nearly 50% of respondents to our latest survey thought hot-rolled coil prices have already peaked. And where will those prices be two months from now? Responses were decidedly split on that question.

Final Thoughts
A modest week-to-week change in HR price understates a huge swing in expectations.