Steel Markets
NAFTA Automotive Production
Written by Peter Wright
September 17, 2013
NAFTA Automotive production in August rebounded to 1.436 million units after the summer shut down. The annual rate in August was 17.243 million units. On a rolling 12 month basis production was 15.719 million units, up 5.9 percent from the 12 months through August a year ago. Growth has been slowing as production approached then equaled the pre-recession level of 2004 through 2006 (Figure 1).
Production share of the three NAFTA members has been changing for 2 ½ years. The US share has been trending up, Canada has been trending down and Mexico has been erratically flat (Figure 2). The Detroit big 3 production share in August 2013 was 52.6 percent, the same as in August 2012.
In 12 months through August year / year, US total light vehicle production was up by 6.8 percent, Mexico up by 8.5 percent and Canada down by 0.6 percent. There has been a change in product mix between the US and Mexico with US growth favoring autos as Mexico has favored light trucks (Table 1). Canada had negative growth in autos but eked out a small gain in light trucks. The trend reported previously by SMU in which the automotive companies are downplaying Canadian production continued through August.
Automotive sales in the US increased to 16.1 million units in August. Year-to-date sales are averaging 1 million units higher than the average for 2012. The average age of vehicles reached a record high in 2012 and pent up demand is being alleviated. Also technological improvements, particularly in fuel economy are contributing to stronger sales. Sales are expected to reach 15.5 million units for the year. The release of pent-up demand will drive sales through the end of 2014, when sales are expected to hit 17 million units before coming down to a more sustainable pace of about 15.5 million units.
Peter Wright
Read more from Peter WrightLatest in Steel Markets
Steady architecture billings signal improving conditions
The November ABI decreased month over month but was still the third-highest reading of the past two years.
Fitch warns more tariffs will pressure global commodity markets
“New commodity-specific tariffs, mainly on steel and aluminum products, could widen price differentials and divert trade flows,” the credit agency forewarned.
Slowing data center, warehouse planning drives decline in Dodge index
The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI) slid further in November as planning for data centers and warehouses continued to decline.
Latin America’s steel industry grapples with declining demand, rising imports
With climbing imports and falling consumption, the Latin American steel industry has had a challenging 2024, according to an Alacero report.
CRU: Trump tariffs could stimulate steel demand
Now that the dust has settled from the US election, as have the immediate reactions in the equity, bond, and commodity markets, this is a prime opportunity to look at how a second Trump presidency might affect the US steel market.