Steel Products Prices North America

SMU Price Ranges & Indices: All is Quiet

September 10, 2013

It has been an eerily quiet week. A number of mills have been in meetings and the MSCI is holding their forecasting summit in the Chicago area on Monday and Tuesday of this week. We did capture a few interesting numbers (such as HR at $610) but not in enough volume to warrant making any changes to what we reported this time last week.

We did get some interesting comments as we went through the process of collecting both pricing and discussing market trends with various companies. First, here is how we see flat rolled prices this week:

Hot Rolled Coil: SMU Range is $630-$660 per ton ($31.00/cwt- $33.00/cwt) with an average of $645 per ton ($32.25/cwt) fob mill, east of the Rockies. Both the lower and upper end of our range remained the same compared to last week. Our average is unchanged compared to last week. The trend for hot rolled is for prices to remain relatively stable over the next 30 days.

Hot Rolled Lead Times: 3-6 weeks.

Cold Rolled Coil: SMU Range is $720-$760 per ton ($36.00/cwt- $38.00/cwt) with an average of $740 per ton ($37.00/cwt) fob mill, east of the Rockies. Both the lower and upper end of our range remained the same compared to last week. Our average is unchanged compared to last week. The trend for cold rolled is for prices to remain relatively stable over the next 30 days.

Cold Rolled Lead Times: 4-8 weeks.

Galvanized Coil: SMU Base Price Range is $720-$770 per ton ($36.00/cwt- $38.50/cwt) with an average of $745 per ton ($37.25/cwt) fob mill, east of the Rockies. Both the lower and upper end of our range remained the same compared to last week. Our average is unchanged compared to last week. The trend for galvanized is for prices to remain relatively stable over the next 30 days.

Galvanized .060” G90 Benchmark: SMU Range is $780-$830 per ton with an average of $805 per ton.

Galvanized Lead Times: 4-8 weeks.

Galvalume Coil: SMU Base Price Range is $740-$780 per ton ($37.00/cwt- $39.00/cwt) with an average of $760 per ton ($38.00/cwt) fob mill, east of the Rockies. Both the lower and upper end of our range remained the same compared to last week. Our average is unchanged compared to last week. The trend for Galvalume is for prices to remain relatively stable over the next 30 days.

Galvalume .0142” AZ50, Grade 80 Benchmark: SMU Range is $1031-$1071 per ton with an average of $1051 per ton.

Galvalume Lead Times: 5-8 weeks.

Comments:

From Midwest based service center:

“I’m finding producers more open to larger orders and appropriate discounts. Buying, other than on programs, has been very shallow over the summer. It appears mills are looking to lock up tons now for Q4 while prices are at the high ebb (even if it takes some discounts to make that happen).

Lead times are shorter for HR, and longer for CR. AK is well behind on their CR re promises for post outage delivery. Demand, adjusting for normal seasonality, is about the same. While a very close call, based on our clients’ current expectations, it appears y-o-y volume should recover for 2013 to match 2012”.

From southern service center:

“Suppliers are 100% in lockstep right now on 2014 and offering basically no programs anyone would or should have interest in, except for a couple of stragglers who have their own unique circumstances. OEM’s can’t be happy with the way things have started.

Lead times really haven’t changed on a macro basis. As you know, each supplier and each product have very unique circumstances that drive lead times (i.e. Berkeley — who basically have zero spot tons in Q4). Customer demand remains decent – virtually no one is consuming more than we are forecasting. We have missed on volume basically every month, although only by a few percent.The Y-Y reduction in Sales Revenue/Sales Price is the big killer.”

Chicago area service center:

“Have had a few offers at discounted base prices on galvanized and hot rolled. HR is at $30.50 and we purchased “x” tons for Oct delivery Think price may drop from there. Galv is at $36.50 and we brought “x” tons for immediate delivery which is 1st week of Oct, but maybe sooner. A little bubble or cancelation at the mill perhaps? Mills tell me lead times are staying put, but just received 500 tons of galv scheduled for end of Sept. – 2 weeks early.”

Southeast area service center:

“Currently it appears what we are seeing is a stare off, no one is willing to commit until lead times get to a crucial point which may mean Dec/Jan. No one wants to be first and most metal purchased today is on CRU and there is no trouble getting delivery and deliveries are for the most part on time. Demand is fair but there is much too much competition at all levels.”