SMU Data and Models
![](https://www.steelmarketupdate.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/media/k2/items/src/0022c5878c1c011445799b6c3e92ef29.jpg)
Mill Lead Times & Negotiations: Trends are Reversing Themselves
Written by John Packard
September 5, 2013
Mill lead times, as reported through our proprietary steel market survey, are shrinking on three of the four flat rolled product categories followed by Steel Market Update. Hot rolled lead times which were referenced on a weighted average basis at 4.5 weeks at the beginning of August are now at 4.0 weeks. However, the 4.0 weeks is still much better than what we saw one year ago when buyers and sellers pegged HR at 3.35 weeks.
Galvanized lead times shrunk from 6.18 weeks to 6.07 weeks but better than the 5.33 weeks of one year ago. Galvalume lead times moved from 6.75 weeks down to 6.55 weeks which continues to be better than the 6.44 weeks referenced one year earlier.
The one item which bucked the trend was cold rolled which came in at 6.20 week lead times up from 5.96 weeks two weeks ago and well above the 5.33 weeks of one year ago.
Negotiations Break Through 50% Levels
On every product but Galvalume, buyers and sellers of steel reported mills as being more willing to negotiate spot prices with their customers. Hot rolled, cold rolled and galvanized were all reported as having exceeded 50 percent of the customers reporting mills as willing to negotiate on those products. The one exception was Galvalume where our survey found only 11 percent of the customers reporting mills as willing to negotiate pricing.
![](https://www.steelmarketupdate.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2023/04/john-packard.png)
John Packard
Read more from John PackardLatest in SMU Data and Models
![](https://www.steelmarketupdate.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2024/01/cropped-SMU_Mobile_final.png)
SMU’s August at a glance
SMU’s Monthly Review provides a summary of important steel market metrics for the previous month. Our August report includes data updated through August 30th.
![](https://www.steelmarketupdate.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/images/Featured_News_Icons/Premium1.png)
SMU market survey results now available
SMU’s latest steel buyers market survey results are now available on our website to all premium members. After logging in at steelmarketupdate.com, visit the pricing and analysis tab and look under the “survey results” section for “latest survey results.”
![](https://www.steelmarketupdate.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2024/01/cropped-SMU_Mobile_final.png)
SMU survey: Lead times edge higher for sheet
Current steel mill lead time averages are a few days longer than levels seen one month prior, but remain near historical lows for both sheet and plate products.
![](https://www.steelmarketupdate.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2024/01/cropped-SMU_Mobile_final.png)
SMU survey: Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices surge
Both our Current and Future Indices are now up to multi-month highs, indicating continued optimism among steel buyers.
![](https://www.steelmarketupdate.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2024/01/cropped-SMU_Mobile_final.png)
SMU survey: Mills’ flexibility on prices up slightly
Steel buyers found mills slightly more willing to negotiate spot prices this week, according to our most recent survey data. Though this negotiation rate has ticked up vs. our previous market check, overall rates have been trending downward since July’s highs.