Steel Products Prices North America

SMU Price Ranges & Indices: Glass Half Full or, Glass Half Empty?

Written by John Packard

August 28, 2013

We are picking up a very mixed bag over the past two days regarding spot flat rolled pricing. As we go through the process we ask ourselves is the spot pricing market glass half full (meaning prices will go higher from here) or half empty (meaning prices will move lower).  We don’t have a clear answer to the question and our Price Indicator remains at Neutral.

We are finding the lowest spot prices are associated with ThyssenKrupp Steel USA in the south where we are hearing of competitive numbers in the spot markets on all products. In the Midwest which tends to be dominated by U.S. Steel, ArcelorMittal, Severstal and a couple of mini-mills, we are seeing the domestic mills as being stable at the same price levels seen one week ago. Steel buyers in the Midwest are reporting spot pricing on hot rolled in the $640-$660 area as the norm. However, we are picking up price points slightly below our $630 low point of last week (now $625) and no one seems to mention $670 anymore on the high side. Galvanized prices we found some weakness – Galvalume we did not. Cold rolled has remained stable.

Our SMU Price Momentum Indicator remains at Neutral as we watch for signs which could move prices higher or lower in the coming weeks. For the moment we believe prices will remain relatively stable over the short term.

Here is how we are seeing flat rolled prices this week:

Hot Rolled Coil: SMU Range is $625-$660 per ton ($31.25/cwt- $33.00/cwt) with an average of $642.5 per ton ($32.125/cwt) fob mill, east of the Rockies. The lower end of our range decreased by $5 per ton compared to last week while the upper end decreased by $10 per ton. Our average is now $7.5 per ton lower compared to last week. The trend for hot rolled is for prices to remain relatively stable over the next 30 days.

Hot Rolled Lead Times: 3-6 weeks.

Cold Rolled Coil: SMU Range is $730-$770 per ton ($36.50/cwt- $38.50/cwt) with an average of $750 per ton ($37.50/cwt) fob mill, east of the Rockies. Both the lower and upper end of our range remained the same compared to last week; therefore our average is unchanged from that of last week. The trend for cold rolled is for prices to remain relatively stable over the next 30 days.

Cold Rolled Lead Times: 4-8 weeks.

Galvanized Coil: SMU Base Price Range is $720-$770 per ton ($36.00/cwt- $38.50/cwt) with an average of $745 per ton ($37.25/cwt) fob mill, east of the Rockies. The lower end of our range decreased by $10 per ton compared to last week while the upper end remained the same. Our average is now $5 per ton lower compared to last week. The trend for galvanized is for prices to remain relatively stable over the next 30 days.

Galvanized .060” G90 Benchmark: SMU Range is $780-$830 per ton with an average of $805 per ton.

Galvanized Lead Times: 4-8 weeks.

Galvalume Coil: SMU Base Price Range is $750-$780 per ton ($37.50/cwt- $39.00/cwt) with an average of $765 per ton ($38.25/cwt) fob mill, east of the Rockies. The lower end of our range increased by $20 per ton compared to last week while the upper end remained the same. Our average is now $10 per ton higher compared to last week. The trend for Galvalume is for prices to remain relatively stable over the next 30 days.

Galvalume .0142” AZ50, Grade 80 Benchmark: SMU Range is $1041-$1071 per ton with an average of $1056 per ton.

Galvalume Lead Times: 5-8 weeks.

John Packard

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